diff --git a/local/scripts/sync-versions.sh b/local/scripts/sync-versions.sh
index 11a8f4e592..c2178098dc 100755
--- a/local/scripts/sync-versions.sh
+++ b/local/scripts/sync-versions.sh
@@ -31,10 +31,12 @@
 #   - Meson test-case crates
 #
 # Usage:
-#   ./local/scripts/sync-versions.sh                # Apply
-#   ./local/scripts/sync-versions.sh --check        # Check only
-#   ./local/scripts/sync-versions.sh --no-regen     # Apply without Cargo.lock regen
-#   ./local/scripts/sync-versions.sh --regen-only   # Only regenerate Cargo.lock files
+#   ./local/scripts/sync-versions.sh                 # Apply version sync (SAFE — no lockfile regen by default)
+#   ./local/scripts/sync-versions.sh --regen         # Apply sync + regen Cargo.lock files
+#   ./local/scripts/sync-versions.sh --check         # Check only, exit 1 if drift
+#   ./local/scripts/sync-versions.sh --dry-run       # Preview: show what --regen WOULD change in lockfiles
+#   ./local/scripts/sync-versions.sh --no-regen      # Same as default (for backward compat)
+#   ./local/scripts/sync-versions.sh --regen-only    # Only regenerate Cargo.lock files
 
 set -euo pipefail
 
@@ -42,13 +44,16 @@ ROOT="$(cd "$(dirname "$0")/../.." && pwd)"
 cd "$ROOT"
 
 CHECK_ONLY=0
-REGEN_LOCKFILES=1
+REGEN_LOCKFILES=0   # Phase 16.0: safe-by-default — lockfile regen is opt-in
+DRY_RUN=0
 for arg in "$@"; do
     case "$arg" in
         --check)      CHECK_ONLY=1 ;;
+        --regen)      REGEN_LOCKFILES=1 ;;
         --no-regen)   REGEN_LOCKFILES=0 ;;
         --regen-only) REGEN_LOCKFILES=1; mode_regen_only=1 ;;
-        -h|--help)    sed -n '1,40p' "$0"; exit 0 ;;
+        --dry-run)    DRY_RUN=1; REGEN_LOCKFILES=1 ;;  # dry-run implies --regen
+        -h|--help)    sed -n '1,45p' "$0"; exit 0 ;;
         *)            echo "Unknown option: $arg" >&2; exit 1 ;;
     esac
 done
@@ -247,6 +252,8 @@ echo ""
 
 # ---- Summary ----
 
+: ${ROOT_DRIFT:=0}
+
 if [[ $CHECK_ONLY -eq 1 ]]; then
     echo "Cat 0 (cookbook root): drift $ROOT_DRIFT"
     echo "Cat 1: checked $CAT1_CHECKED, drift $CAT1_DRIFT"
@@ -273,21 +280,21 @@ fi
 # that has a Cargo.lock. The path-dep + [patch.crates-io] config in each
 # fork ensures the right crates are pulled in.
 #
-# Skip when --check or --no-regen; only --regen-only also opts in.
+# Skip when --check (but NOT --regen-only: that opts IN to regen)
+# Skip when --no-regen is active (REGEN_LOCKFILES=0)
 
-if [[ $CHECK_ONLY -eq 1 ]]; then
+if [[ $CHECK_ONLY -eq 1 && "${mode_regen_only:-0}" != "1" ]]; then
     echo ""
     echo "(lockfile regeneration skipped in --check mode)"
     exit 0
 fi
 if [[ $REGEN_LOCKFILES -eq 0 ]]; then
     echo ""
-    echo "(lockfile regeneration skipped via --no-regen)"
+    echo "(lockfile regeneration skipped — use --regen to enable)"
     exit 0
 fi
 
-echo ""
-echo "=== Phase 3: Regenerate Cargo.lock files ==="
+# ---- Phase 3: Lockfile regeneration utilities ----
 
 REGEN_DONE=0
 REGEN_FAILED=0
@@ -314,6 +321,74 @@ regen_lockfile_for() {
     cd "$ROOT"
 }
 
+# ---- Phase 3: Dry-run preview (--dry-run flag) ----
+# Snapshot each fork's Cargo.lock, regen, show diff, then revert.
+# This lets operators preview lockfile changes before a real branch bump.
+if [[ $DRY_RUN -eq 1 ]]; then
+    echo ""
+    echo "=== Phase 3: Dry-run lockfile regen preview ==="
+    echo "(existing Cargo.lock files will NOT be modified)"
+    echo ""
+
+    # Preserve all lockfiles first
+    declare -A LOCK_BACKUPS=()
+    for lock_dir in "$ROOT" local/sources/*/; do
+        [ -d "$lock_dir" ] || continue
+        [ -f "${lock_dir}/Cargo.toml" ] || continue
+        lock="${lock_dir}/Cargo.lock"
+        if [ -f "$lock" ]; then
+            LOCK_BACKUPS["$lock"]=$(cat "$lock")
+        fi
+    done
+
+    # Regenerate in-place (reverts after)
+    regen_lockfile_for "$ROOT" "root"
+    for fork_dir in local/sources/*/; do
+        [ -d "$fork_dir" ] || continue
+        fork_name=$(basename "$fork_dir")
+        [ -f "${fork_dir}Cargo.toml" ] || continue
+        regen_lockfile_for "${fork_dir%/}" "local/sources/${fork_name}"
+    done
+
+    # Show diffs
+    changed=0
+    echo ""
+    echo "--- Lockfile changes that would occur on a real bump ---"
+    for lock in "${!LOCK_BACKUPS[@]}"; do
+        backup="${LOCK_BACKUPS[$lock]}"
+        current=""
+        [ -f "$lock" ] && current=$(cat "$lock")
+        if [ "$backup" != "$current" ]; then
+            changed=$((changed + 1))
+            label="${lock#$ROOT/}"
+            echo ""
+            echo "  === $label ==="
+            diff <(echo "$backup") <(echo "$current") | head -30
+            if [ $(diff <(echo "$backup") <(echo "$current") | wc -l) -gt 30 ]; then
+                echo "  ... (truncated — $(( $(diff <(echo "$backup") <(echo "$current") | wc -l) - 30 )) more lines)"
+            fi
+        fi
+    done
+
+    # Restore originals
+    for lock in "${!LOCK_BACKUPS[@]}"; do
+        echo "${LOCK_BACKUPS[$lock]}" > "$lock"
+    done
+
+    echo ""
+    echo "=== Dry-run summary ==="
+    echo "  Lockfiles with changes: $changed"
+    if [ $changed -eq 0 ]; then
+        echo "  ALL CLEAR — no lockfile changes would occur. Safe to --regen."
+    else
+        echo "  Review the diffs above. If acceptable, run: $0 --regen"
+    fi
+    exit 0
+fi
+
+echo ""
+echo "=== Phase 3: Regenerate Cargo.lock files ==="
+
 # Regenerate root cookbook lockfile
 regen_lockfile_for "$ROOT" "root"